Predicting Business Cycles

Back in August 2006, I had written a post on Dot Com Bust 2.0, sadly rediff BLOGS has a bad way of storing posts (week-wise instead of it being individual posts) passed away into oblivion.

Revisiting that post was an interesting exercise, an excerpt –

Do we see history repeating itself? A sudden surge in this Dot Com 2.0 demand, people are already teeming in to cash-in on this new opportunity. Do I start off a firm of my own and try to do the same. Is this risk / venture enough to sustain me through the impending bust? During my induction at TechMahindra, there was a fellow from the top management who was wizened enough to predict that the next bust is going to come in the year 2009. We laughed it off back then, I am not laughing now. Maybe, the dot com bust might relapse, and why not? Fortunately, IT in India is not just about web development anymore. We will pass through this. But will my dream of starting off on my own do the same?

Full marks and respect for that top executive.

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